Let’s face it, the preseason college football rankings are rarely accurate.
This year has the potential for extra parity, as over half of the top-10 teams in college football have first year starting quarterbacks to open the season.
A few of those teams are bound to disappoint, opening up opportunities for new teams to rise the ranks.
While I was scouting 4000+ players in the 2025 NFL Draft, I noticed tons of impact players who are set to return next year. As a result, I’m confident that I know more than the experts ranking the teams.
Here are 5 college football teams who will play better than expected in 2025:
Most Underrated Teams in College Football
Texas Tech Red Raiders
Preseason Ranking: #23 | Wins Over/Under: 8.5
Behren Morton returns at quarterback for Texas Tech following a dramatically improved 2024 season. He’s been battle-tested in the Big 12 and brings stability, decision-making, and leadership at the most important position.
Despite losing a stud at running back and some good tight ends, Texas Tech has completely reloaded and upgraded at basically every position.
The Red Raiders had the best transfer portal class in college football, including legitimate day 1 difference makers. Their pass rush should be one of the best in the nation with Romello Height and David Bailey transferring in, while also adding a stud in Lee Hunter from UCF. All 3 of those guys are NFL talents who go above and beyond what the system asks of them.
The offensive line has been bolstered, with depth across the team that will allow them to win in a variety of ways.
They also benefit from an easy schedule this year. Their non-conference games should be cake walks, and there’s no obvious top 10 team in the Big12 now that Oklahoma and Texas are in the SEC.
They have a legitimate chance to go 11-1 or even 12-0 to start the season, which would easily land them in the college football playoff.
My Prediction: 11-1 Regular Season, Big12 Title, College Football Playoff Birth
Texas A&M Aggies
Preseason Ranking: N/A | Wins Over/Under: 7.5
Texas A&M being UNRANKED to start the season is an absolute headscratcher. They have a top 5 roster in college football, with elite talent in every single position group.
Marcel Reed takes over as the full time quarterback. Reed is a dynamic playmaker who showed a ton of flashes, with the running ability to stress the defense and reasonable accuracy.
He’s going to have an elite group of playmakers to throw to. KC Concepcion and Mario Craver combine for the most underrated WR room in the country. Concepcion is an All-American talent transferring in from NC State, and you’ll see why very soon. Mario Craver also showed a ton of flashes during his true freshman season at Mississippi State, looking like a future NFL talent.
Le’Veon Moss is preseason 1st team All-SEC for a reason, offering an elite red zone presence and the ability to break long runs.
What really makes me excited about this offense, however, is the elite offensive line. It might be the best in the nation, particularly at the guard positions with Ar’maj Reed-Adams and Chase Bisontis. Trey Zuhn is also a great player, and Dametrious Crownover is a steady presence at right tackle.
It’s more of the same on defense, with a solid secondary led by Will Lee III, one of the best LBs in the SEC in Taurean York, and a few big time athlete along the defensive line.
With no Alabama or Georgia on the schedule this year, this could be the year that the Aggies finally put it all together.
If one of their 3 big name pass rushers can take that next step, this could easily be a college football playoff team.
My Prediction: 10-2 Regular Season, SEC Runner Up, College Football Playoff Birth
Oklahoma Sooners
Preseason Ranking: #18 | Wins Over/Under: 6.5
Oklahoma struggled in their first SEC season in 2024, making it the 2nd time in just 3 years that they finished with a losing record.
As soon as they hired Jim Nagy as GM, I knew that streak wasn’t going to continue. Jim Nagy was the Executive Director and head of scouting for the Senior Bowl, which has been the pinnacle of identifying NFL talent.
John Mateer transferred in from Washington State to play quarterback, and he’s an absolute baller. He has one of the most underrated receivers in the nation to throw to in Deion Burks, and Isaiah Satenga is an excellent addition as well transferring in from Arkansas. In the backfield, Jadyn Ott is a wildcard with a very high ceiling who dominated in 2023 before struggling in an injury-riddled 2024.
The defense doesn’t have a ton of star power, but head coach Brent Venables is a great defensive mind who has that unit trending in the right direction.
Their schedule may look difficult on paper, but the Michigan and Auburn games should be way easier than people expect. It’s hard to imagine a situation where they don’t get at least 8 wins if Mateer is healthy.
My Prediction: 9-3 Regular Season
South Florida Bulls
Preseason Ranking: N/A | Wins Over/Under: 6.5
This prediction is based on my extreme confidence in two individuals: Head Coach Alex Golesh, and Quarterback Byrum Brown.
I was shocked that Alex Golesh wasn’t hired away from USF this past offseason, and I was honestly very surprised when I checked their roster a few days ago and saw how many key players they were able to retain despite the transfer portal.
Starting with Golesh, this team was dead in the water before he arrived here. From 2020-2022, USF had a combined record of 4-29, including a 1-11 finish in 2022. Golesh took over and immediately led them to back-to-back 7 win seasons.
A mid major with an elite head coach is a very dangerous thing.
The players obviously still matter, and there isn’t a lack of talent. It starts with Byrum Brown, who is probably the best non power conference QB in the nation. He’s a true dual threat with power, speed, and a legitimate arm. Despite missing most of 2024 with an injury, I’m expecting him to push 4000 all-purpose yards this coming soon.
Defensively, they were able to maintain an impressive amount of talent. Mac Harris and Jhalyn Shuler at linebacker are both good enough to be power conference starters, and they have a deep cornerback room led by Tennessee transfer De’Shawn Rucker.
They have experience across the board, and enough star power to pull off a big upset or two. They have a guantlet of a start to the season with Boise State, Florida, and Miami all being ranked opponents, but I wouldn’t count them out in those games. Even if they lose all 3, 8 wins is still the floor if Byrum Brown is healthy, and breaking 6.5 should be easy with this coaching staff.
My Prediction: 9-3 Regular Season, AAC Title
Minnesota Gophers
Preseason Ranking: N/A | Wins Over/Under: 6.5
Minnesota is disrespected by the national media every year. Excluding the COVID season where the Gophers only played 7 total games all year, Minnesota hasn’t missed a bowl game since 2017, and even then they weren’t totally dead in the water with a 5-7 record. Winning 8+ games a year is the standard in Minnesota, and has been for nearly a decade now under PJ Fleck.
Outside of Ohio State and Oregon, every game on their schedule is winnable. They have 2 guaranteed wins to open the season, and the schedule doesn’t get much harder.
Their defense is elite almost every year, and this year they’re destined to have one of the best pass rushes in the nation. Anthony Smith and Deven Eastern are future NFL players on the defensive line, with a great tandem of linebackers and perhaps the best safety unit in all of college football.
Offense with the first year starter Drake Lindsay will be a question mark, but Darius Taylor returning at running back will make things quite a bit easier if he’s healthy. Taylor is one of the most complete running backs in college football, playing with great vision, contact balance, and elite receiving ability.
Word in the building is that Lindsay was an absolute sponge while learning from Max Brosmer, and the team has talked him up a ton. If he’s able to play even just competent football, which I believe he will, the Gophers should be able to easily sneak out 7 or 8 wins.
My Prediction: 8-4 Regular Season
Honorable Mentions
The 5 teams listed above are most likely to exceed their projected win totals, but there are a few more teams that I’m a huge fan of:
Wake Forest Demon Deacons | Wins Over/Under: 4.5 | My Prediction: 6-6
After a few good years, Wake Forest has began to trend down once again. They moved on from longtime head coach Dave Clawson, replacing him with Jake Dickert who comes over from Washington State. The investment at the coaching position represents a greater trend in the program, that they aren’t ready to go back to being an ACC doormat. They’ve invested accordingly in other aspects of the program, and have one of the best running backs in the ACC in Demond Claiborne.
Florida State Seminoles | Wins Over/Under: 6.5 | My Prediction: 8-4
Florida State is coming off a disaster of a season, but just 1 year prior had an undefeated regular season, plus a 10-win season just before that. They have a defense filled with legitimate NFL draft prospects, an incredible wide receiver room, and now have one of the best dual threat quarterbacks in the nation in Tommy Castellanos, who comes over from Boston College.
UTSA Roadrunners | Wins Over/Under: 7.5 | My Prediction: 9-3
UTSA’s offensive talent is better than a lot of power conference teams have. Owen McCown returns at quarterback where he’ll be one of the best Group of 5 quarterbacks in the nation, and Robert Henry might be the most talented running back in the conference as well. Head Coach Jeff Traylor has been one of the best in the nation since getting to San Antonio, amassing an impressive 46-20 record, averaging over 8 wins a season despite not usually having this much talent.
Cincinnati Bearcats | Wins Over/Under: 6.5 | My Prediction: 8-4
The Bearcats haven’t been the same since they moved to the Big 12 in 2023, but that could easily change this year. They have invested a ton of money in the program with the recent struggles, and grabbed a few very underrated players in the portal. Brendan Sorsby is an intriguing talent at QB with a ton of potential, and quietly have one of the best front 7’s in the Big 12 thanks to Dontay Corleone and Jake Golday.
San Diego State Aztecs | Wins Over/Under: 4.5 | My Prediction: 6-6
This is mostly a vote of confidence in the overall sports culture of San Diego State. The Aztecs are always good at sports, that just hasn’t been true over the past two seasons for their football team. But teams with good culture tend to bounce back, and they have quite the history of success. From 2010-2022, SDSU never once had a losing record. We’re not very far removed from that, making 4.5 wins an insulting line for them. They have maybe the most defensive talent in the conference, led by Preseason DPOY Trey White, All-Conference LB Tano Letuli, and lockdown CB Chris Johnson.
Troy Trojans | Wins Over/Under: 5.5 | My Prediction: 7-5
This is another bet on team culture. Troy has had 10+ wins 5 times in the past decade, and that success doesn’t just go away after 1 off year. Troy is outspending the rest of the conference and has brought in an impressive transfer portal class as a result. While QB is a legitimate question mark, they have a great receiver room led by former Georgia Bulldog Rara Thomas, and a few legitimate difference makers on defense led by Luis Medina, Jordan Stringer, and Devin Lafayette.
