Every year, there is a position or two that seems incredibly difficult to predict. This usually has to deal with a large flux of boom-or-bust prospects.
The 2020 draft has its own challenges caused by current cancellations, eliminating a large amount of scouting time. While this has hurt the ability to scout every position, it really hurts for groups of players who have proven to be very similar in skill level.
In the 2020 draft, pro day results were going to be key in determining the top prospects at offensive guard.
Personally, offensive linemen are likely my weak spot when it comes to scouting. This is especially true for guards where sheer athleticism isn’t incredibly important. Guards also tend to be incredibly deep, with only a few degrees of separation between an above-average and below-average prospects.
This year there are no true guards with a 1st or 2nd round grade, and generally every media scout agrees on that unless they classify Cesar Ruiz or Joshua Jones at the guard spot. Since there’s no elite prospect, we immediately jump into the usual mass of guards with a potential day 3 grade. An average of 15 guards are drafted each year, but almost 30 players always seem to be good enough to make a roster. You just need to figure out which are slightly better.
In my mid-April update, I slightly shifted my top guard prospects, but didn’t have the rankings overhaul that I anticipated at the position. Currently, my top 10 guards are as follows:
- Ben Bredeson, Michigan
- John Simpson, Clemson
- Robert Hunt, Louisiana-Lafayette
- Netane Muti, Fresno State
- Shane Lemieux, Oregon
- Damien Lewis, LSU
- Jonah Jackson, Ohio State
- Hakeem Adeniji, Kansas
- Kevin Dotson, Louisiana-Lafayette
- Logan Stenberg, Kentucky
After looking at the rankings provided on about a dozen other sites, I found this group to be the most in flux. Looking at almost any position in the draft, there is a clear cut #1 player, or at very least a clear cut top tier. That’s not the case for the guards.
Rankings for 8 sites, as of April 12, 2020. Includes DraftScout, Mel Kiper, ESPN.com, NFL.com, CBS Sports, Bleacher Report, and OurLads.
When we break this down into composite rankings, the rankings are Robert Hunt, Ben Bredeson, Damien Lewis, John Simpson, Logan Stenberg, Shane Lemieux, Netane Muti, Jonah Jackson, Splomon Kindley, and Hakeem Adeniji. But there is far from a consensus. Robert Hunt ranks #1-3 for most people, but is #10 for one. Bredeson ranges from #1 to #7. John Simpson ranges from #1-#12, and Muti from #3-#17.
No other position in the draft will you see this much parody.
Generally, media scouts come to a false consensus, and simply assume NFL scouts fall in line. Then when the draft comes around there are surprise picks that vary greatly from media rankings. If that’s the case this year, we could easily see a player not listed above be one of the first guards taken.
In a year where most pro days were cancelled and many guards are small school converted tackles, it will be interesting to see who steps up and turns into a great player.
